THE “FALL OF ROME”: PART IV - ARE WE NEXT? UM … MAYBE

Hey ChatGPT … generate an image of Washington DC in 5,000 years, showing decay and overgrowth. Oh .. ok … I see we’ve built a second Capitol in that time. Cool, cool.

Parts I–III summary

The Fall of Rome is often discussed for its perceived relevance today but remains poorly defined and widely misunderstood. We examined the complexities of the terms “fall” in Part I and “Rome” in Part II. Then in Part III, we highlighted key differences between Rome and the U.S., such as Rome’s reliance on slavery versus the U.S.’s instant communication networks. We’ll wrap up the series here in Part IV, highlighting some similarities between the 2 civilizations. Similarities that might serve as cautionary tales to America.

Rather than delve into political science — a field I’m not qualified to expound on — I’ll address America’s current issues in broad terms. For instance, political corruption in the U.S. is widely acknowledged; debates over its extent or key culprits fall outside this discussion.

“The Fall of Rome,” rightly or wrongly, refers to the end of the Roman Empire, capital E. Since America is not an empire in the classical sense, the comparison falls short. A more fitting parallel might be the End of the Roman Republic, spanning from the Gracchi brothers in the 2nd century BC to Julius Caesar’s rise. His great-nephew and adopted son, Octavian, then cemented Rome’s transformation into an empire. Over this century, Rome’s challenges multiplied, exposing the failures of a government designed for a small agrarian city-state but eventually ruling a vast empire of up to 60 million people.

With this distinction in mind, let’s examine the similarities between the two societies — red flags that should give America pause. If recognized, understood, and addressed, they may help us avoid a similar fate.

Wealth Inequality

From a 2015 Occupy May Day protest in New York. The broader Occupy Wall Street movement brought awareness to the wealth disparity between the 1% and the 99%. (© 2015 All-Nite Images. License)

Perhaps the strongest parallel between Rome and America is the impact of wealth disparity — an issue of urgent concern today.

“The disparity of fortune between the rich and the poor had reached its height, so that the city seemed to be in a dangerous condition, and no other means for freeing it from disturbances … seemed possible but despotic power.”

This above quote could apply to many points in history, especially the 20th century. Yet it comes from Plutarch’s Lives of the Gracchi, written between the late 1st and early 2nd centuries AD. He also attributes similar warnings to Solon of Athens, a reformer who lived five centuries before the Gracchi.

A greater factor in the Republic’s collapse than the Empire’s, wealth inequality was a powerful catalyst for instability. While it could topple governments, it persisted through the fall of the Republic, the Empire, the Middle Ages, and into the modern era.

In America, the top 1% hold about 35% of total household wealth, while the bottom 50% own just 2.5% (note the decimal point! That’s not ‘25’). Polls consistently show most Americans support higher taxes on the wealthy, and nearly a third view the very existence of billionaires as a problem. (Sources: Financial Times, US Federal Reserve, Pew Research Center).

Despite broad support for addressing inequality, the government remains paralyzed — much like Rome in the final century of the Republic. Senators could dig in their heels, refusing to budge, while the spirit of consensus that once defined the early Republic (or was said to) had vanished. Politics became a zero-sum game: I can only win if he loses. The parallels to the U.S. Congress, in particular, are striking.

Political Corruption

Special-interest groups, as we know them today, would have been instantly recognizable in ancient Rome. Business owners sought tax breaks, temple priests lobbied for shrine repairs, and brothel owners pushed for laxer laws. While our modern lobbyists represent fossil fuels, tech giants, and healthcare providers, the strategy remains the same: find your politician and push hard.

In Rome, this played out through patronage — a system of mutual backscratching. A patrician supported those beneath him on the social ladder, reinforcing societal bonds. But this quid pro quo often led senators to vote against the public — or even their own — interests in exchange for a sack of gold or the promise of future favors.

Individual corruption is a short leap from the system of special interests. In the U.S., it’s exposed regularly, if not often enough. Modern politicians accept lavish trips, bribes or favors in exchange for voting a certain way or ignoring inconvenient problems for their benefactors. This reciprocal arrangement was the foundation of Roman politics. While we’ve had the foresight to make many of these activities illegal, human nature ensures the problem persists.

Civil Unrest

Inaction on inequality and corruption fuels unrest among citizens eager for change. When combined with political polarization and government inaction, it creates a perfect storm for civil unrest. In Rome, this manifested as the populari taking to the streets. While protests are common in America, they typically don’t escalate into significant violence — either between factions or through government-imposed order. Still, the guardrails protecting civility are increasingly strained.

Challenges of Immigration and Integration

Immigration to the U.S. by country in 2022. (License)

Immigration remains a hot-button issue in the U.S. How do we keep our doors open without leaving them too wide? Rome, remarkably open to people from across the world, faced a similar challenge, especially as it absorbed many of its conquered peoples. The key issue for both civilizations was how to integrate newcomers while maintaining social cohesion. Early on, Rome had a strategy: disarm new tribes and disperse them across the empire. However, as the Germanic tribes continued to pour over the borders, Rome abandoned this approach to its detriment.

Public Health Crises

The U.S. response to Covid-19 highlighted limitations in government and health infrastructure and raised questions about the effectiveness of solutions like masking, lockdowns, and business closures. Yet, this pales in comparison to the public health challenges Rome faced. As discussed in Part I, the Empire was powerless against plagues and even common illnesses due to its ignorance of disease transmission. However, Rome weathered these crises over centuries. An epidemic far worse than Covid-19 could push America’s systems to their breaking point or worse.

Environmental Degradation

Between 250 BC and 150 AD, the Mediterranean enjoyed a period of warmer temperatures, known as the Roman Climatic Optimum. This favorable climate, with its reliable rainfall and higher food yields, coincided with Rome’s rise from Republic to Empire, and some scholars attribute this success to the climate. The pendulum swung the other way in the mid-second century AD. This resulted in cooler, dryer weather, again with a severe impact on food supplies. In recent years, global temperatures have been rising, and erratic weather events have become more frequent. While the science indicates human-induced climate change, some still dispute this. Whether driven by human activity or natural climatic cycles, the shift could disrupt life globally — higher temperatures in some regions, colder in others, both harming crop yields. Additionally, as glaciers melt and sea levels rise, coastal cities face the threat of inundation which could trigger mass migration and economic upheaval.

Military Overreach

Rome overextended its military resources across the empire. While fewer in number per capita than the U.S. military today, by the time of the last Western emperor’s deposition, Rome’s forces were largely made up of Germanic mercenaries. Similarly, the U.S. is often seen as “the world’s policeman,” risking overextension globally. Like Rome, the U.S. outsources much of its military obligations to contractors like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman. As with Rome’s reliance on barbarian mercenaries, the loyalty and commitment of these contractors can be uncertain or transient, not to mention expensive.

Failure to Adapt

The above are just a few examples where the U.S. and Rome share some concerning similarities. Rome’s inability to effectively adapt to changing internal and external circumstances played a significant role in its decline. The U.S. could thus learn valuable lessons from Rome in the following areas:

• Government: Power in Rome was concentrated in autocratic leaders, and a succession of poor ones led to corruption, civic unrest, and ineffective governance. Autocracy was less adaptable than representative government which struggled to meet the needs of a diverse, expanding population.

• Infrastructure and Resources: As funds dwindled, Rome neglected its roads, aqueducts, and public buildings, hindering communication, trade, and military movements. Food supplies were threatened by powerful figures controlling the supply and by climate changes after the Roman Climatic Optimum.

• Social Cohesion and Identity: Rome’s identity was diluted by mass immigration, while religious tensions emerged as Christianity took hold. In the U.S., religious and immigration issues are similarly divisive, but partisanship and the siloing of political views in a zero-sum game threaten to undermine the ability to address future challenges.

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I think the best way to conclude this series is by finally answering a question posed in Part I: how can we reconcile the opposing images of a fallen Rome with one that perseveres? The answer is both simple and complex. The fall of the Western Empire, marked by 476 AD, is often viewed as a clear dividing line, though it took decades to fully unfold.

Historically, scholars have romanticized this date, giving it undue significance — after all, it’s more dramatic to discuss catastrophe than endurance. This perspective betrays a Western European bias, as the Roman Empire thrived for centuries in the east and continues to influence us today through language, law, religion, and culture.

I liken 476 AD to an amputation — removal of an important part but not one vital to survival. The U.S. has yet to experience such a schism. Should we face damage and perhaps even collapse from the risks I’ve outlined, I hope future scholars will not label the U.S. as fallen, but rather, like Rome, transformed.